What is the Solution to Colombia's Problems?

It may be true that some insurgents, given land of their own, become satisfied. But is there enough land to convert all of Latin America's rapidly growing population into satisfied peasants?

Look at Chiapas

The indigenismo wing of the Mexican revolution thought such a "solution" could at least complement industrialization, and thus buy peace in the countryside. But look today at Chiapas, Guerrero, and other restive areas of rural Mexico.

Cannot be Understood Outside the Global System

Colomibia's problems, and those of other Latin American nations, cannot be understood outside the global system. Here, the MOST important fact is the dramatic, long-term slowdown in WORLD economic growth. The World Bank and the IMF provide the statistics. They take the figures from individual nations (eg, the GDPs), and then correct by looking at world trade and other cross-border flows. Once real growth (corrected for inflation) is arrived at for individual nations, a global figure can be reached by simply summing.

Even Harmful Economic Growth Included

Of course, world economic growth rates leave out some important transactions, eg, most of the illicit drug trade. Also, even HARMFUL economic growth goes into this compilation. Thus, the rapid increase in tobacco use in China shows up as 'positive' economic growth, as does the growth of the sex and pornography industry in the U.S. (one of the fastest growing areas of the American economy, and massive in size).

Trilateral Area in Recession

In the 1960s, world real economic growth averaged 5.0%. In the 1970s, it dropped to 3.6%. In the 1980s, it fell to 2.8% - bringing it close to the level of worldwide population increase. Over the 1990s, world real growth was around 2.0%. Today, the entire Trilateral area (Japan, U.S./Canada/Mexico, Europe) is mired in recession, the first time all three areas have simultaneously posted negative growth since the oil shock of the early 1970s. As economist Lester Thurow remarks, "In two decades capitalism lost 60% of its momentum" (See 1996, The Future of Capitalism: How Today's Economic Forces Shape Tomorrow's World, which includes a summary of these statistics. The World Bank website is also useful).

No Sign of Reverse in Decline

There is no sign that this secular economic decline in the world economy will be reversed. The problem is one of a lack in global effective demand, and the "sink" of capital into "savings" when profitable investment outlets are not available in the current economic order.

Similar Situation in Early 20th Century

The world faced a very similar situation in the early 20th century. There, too, economic growth languished even as technical productivity and efficiency flourished. Indeed, technical advance CAUSES economic decline. More production from fewer workers gluts the global market, providing surfeit of goods chasing falling income-wealth. Prices fall, deflation begins, and chronic economic depression is the result.

Colombia is One Nation Caught in This Downward Spiral

Colombia is one nation caught in this downward spiral. True, it has its unique history, and this is important. But the macrotrends apply in Colombia, just as they do in Nigeria, Afghanistan, the Phillipines, Indonesia, Guatemala, and all other countries.

US Also Feeling Effects

The U.S. has seen a decline in real salary income of about 30% since 1970, in part offset by the flood of women into the workforce (ie, working wives help maintain family income in the face of salary decline). But anger and reaction is growing in the U.S., as evidenced by the "New Right" and the Drug War, for example.

Slowdown Hits Third World Hardest

But nowhere has the world economic slowdown hit as hard as in the commodity producing Third World. Hopes for "industrial growth" are fatuous - how is Colombia to grow its industries, when technically modern Japan cannot? Land reform might, indeed, be temporarily useful - but world agricultural prices are going to fall, and the cost of imported manufactured goods will not fall as quickly.

Exceedingly Dark Future

Sub-Saharan Africa, in the last two decades, has gone from development hopes to a quagmire of permanent poverty, which many economists now view as simply hopeless. The future of Latin America is, despite the bourgeois optimism of government flacks, exceedingly dark. Argentina points the direction in which ALL of Latin America must move, if the GLOBAL economic decline continues apace. And I think that decline will continue. Why would it not?

FARC: a National-Bourgeois Vision

The FARC ideology is a national-bourgeois vision. It resembles the "independence" formulations of the Central American movements, and it has led to the same Foco-theory of insurrection. It posits an "independent" Colombia, led by a coalition between "national" business and peasant-workers (but in which the business component will dominate, just as the petite bourgeoisie dominated the Sandindista regime in Nicaragua).

Doomed to Fail

This whole approach is doomed to fail. I spent a short time with the guerrilla group led by Joaquin Villalobos in Morazan, El Salvador, during the height of the war there. I know these insurgents include truly noble types, whose dedication to their ideals is unquestionable (though the guerrilla units also contain, as I observed, true scumbags). But ideals alone don't win wars. And the Salvadoran guerrillas were, in the end, crushed. The FARC is going to be crushed, too, I think, as the new technology of global anti-insurgency simply dooms any movement based upon the national bourgeoisie and wedded to Foco-tactics.

Clerical Fascist Movements Most Effective

Ironically, it is the "clerical fascist" movements of the Islamic area (like the Bin Laden group) who have been most creative in devising new strategic and tactical ideas with which to oppose the Trilateral imperial system. Again, this recapitulates trends of the early 20th century, when the fascist movements were the most dynamic opponents of the established world powers.

There is no "Solution" to the Colombian Situation

There is no "solution" to the Colombian situation. What is most likely to occur is an increasing use of U.S. counter-insurgency technology and economic aid, leading to the gradual grinding down of resistance. No one should doubt the willingness of the U.S., and other imperial states, to kill scores of thousands to suppress this situation. But Colombia is only a part of the Latin American problem for Trilaterial strategists, who plan regionally, and globally.

Poverty, and Repression, Will Increase Dramatically

Over the next several decades, global economic trends are likely to worsen. Colombia - and most of Latin America - is going to suffer grieviously. Poverty will increase dramatically, and so will the repression which is needed to contain it. The idea of "dividing up land" is banal. There is not enough land in the entire world to satisfy the need of just Latin America's population.

Only Solution: Reverse the Trend of Economic Stagnation

The only solution is to reverse the trend of economic stagnation. But can this be done without a revolutionary restructuring of the world economy? The elite in the Trilateral nations assure us they can do this, if only the world economy is left to them to manage. Anyway, they will use unlimited force to keep the economic control they now enjoy.

How to Take Control from Dominant Elites

For those who doubt that current trends can be reversed without dramatic change, the challenge is to formulate some new strategy of taking control away from the dominant elites. I know of no group that has any viable theory as to how this is to be done - certainly not the FARC, with it's romantic neo-Guevara nationalism. Again, ironically, the most creative thought and action in this area comes from an odious source - the Islamic clerical fascists.

The Edge of Another Global Economic Depression

The future of Colombia looks exceedingly dark. I spent some years in the early 1970s in rural Guatemala, and witnessed "death squad" violence first-hand. I thought things could not get worse. I was wrong. The horror of Guatemalan poverty and violence seems to worsen every year. I do not know Colombia first hand, but my global trends auger that the fate of Guatemala will be visited upon all of Latin America and, indeed, upon the entire Third World. We stand near the edge of another global economic depression.